Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

45 0x4550…2398 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$681 (+18%) realized +$706 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%7W / 20L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$96per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$1,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$860

7 days+$643

14 days+$643

30 days+$643

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-17.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-9.2%	-17.8%	26%	26%	+40.3%
≤30d	27	-9.2%	-17.8%	26%	26%	+40.3%
≤90d	27	-9.2%	-17.8%	26%	26%	+40.3%
all	27	-9.2%	-17.8%	26%	26%	+40.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.8%	26%	+40.3%
10%	-25.7%	19%	+26.9%
15%	-32.9%	19%	+14.6%
20%	-39.4%	11%	+3.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +55% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +72% → late -85% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$131 vs −$14 · ×9.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage

Net worth$1,281

Realized+$706

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses7 / 20

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions13

Markets (closed)27 / 40

History coverage163d

Avg bet$96

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 13 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	64¢	62¢	$1,142	$1,109	−$33 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	No	96¢	100¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	77¢	97¢	$24	$30	+$6 (+26%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	88¢	88¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	51¢	50¢	$12	$12	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	88¢	95¢	$8	$8	+$1 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	16¢	17¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	No	72¢	72¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Yes	43¢	3¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-94%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$3	−$3	-100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Jun 19	$760	+$880	+116%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama?	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Jun 19	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$31	−$31	-100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 18	$6	−$6	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$8	+39%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 17	$1	+$11	+1110%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$4	+$1	+16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$14	+$6	+41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14	Jun 15	$3	+$11	+374%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Jun 13	$252	−$163	-65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	62¢	$43	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	59¢	$100	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	61¢	$100	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	65¢	$301	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	65¢	$603	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL No	54¢	$1,202	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	63¢	$201	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	63¢	$100	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	52¢	$100	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	66¢	$100	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	62¢	$502	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	60¢	$301	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	52¢	$50	2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	88¢	$20	2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	72¢	$5	3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	3h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$1	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$1	3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	96¢	$50	3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$3	4h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL No	76¢	$817	5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	SELL No	76¢	$817	5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	36¢	$336	25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	26¢	$226	25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,280.75 · official $1,280.75 (match) · 95 history records