Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4550…a249 crypto 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (967 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$142 (+3%) realized +$149 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate40%66W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day967.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (967 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 11% -10.1%
≤30d 166 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 11% -10.1%
≤90d 166 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 11% -10.1%
all 166 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 11% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover967.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 11% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 5% -18.7%
15% -24.6% 2% -26.6%
20% -32.0% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses66 / 100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 167
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day967.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 47¢ 62¢ $25 $32 +$8 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 53¢ 38¢ $27 $20 −$7 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $45 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.20 · official $104.17 (match) · 1133 history records