Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4553…9426 sports 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$497 (-0%) realized −$497 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate79%112W / 30L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,748per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$631est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,847
7 days−$7,250
14 days−$7,785
30 days−$9,714
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$6,745
other 32% +$3,930
world 3% +$609
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.6% -15.5% 72% 22% -22.5%
≤30d 39 -5.7% -14.6% 79% 21% -15.6%
≤90d 84 -1.8% -11.1% 82% 17% -10.6%
all 142 -0.5% -10.0% 79% 24% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 24% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 7% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 5% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$4,653) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$830 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses112 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$631
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage228d
Avg bet$2,748
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,503 −$1,958 -78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,621 −$889 -34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,512 +$104 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3,742 −$3,736 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,599 +$142 +4%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $3,506 +$92 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3,172 +$271 +8%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $81 −$24 -30%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,995 +$257 +9%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,801 +$201 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,016 −$2,946 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,692 +$57 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5,470 +$221 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5,157 +$314 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $981 +$181 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2,581 +$405 +16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5,341 −$2,807 -52%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $4,859 +$461 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $6,582 +$329 +5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $5,982 +$584 +10%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $5,713 +$285 +5%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $5,311 +$392 +7%
Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5,098 +$257 +5%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4,976 +$14 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $4,796 +$292 +6%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 4.5 May 29 $4,142 +$644 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $3,804 +$343 +9%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: O/U 4.5 May 27 $3,511 +$295 +8%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $7 +$1 +7%
SD Eibar vs. Córdoba CF: O/U 5.5 May 24 $2,653 +$468 +18%
Spread: Houston Dynamo (-1.5) May 24 $2,867 +$174 +6%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2,591 +$276 +11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2,173 +$417 +19%
FC Barcelona vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 3.5 May 23 $5,616 −$5,600 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $9,395 +$381 +4%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $9,028 +$365 +4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $8,869 +$168 +2%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $7,378 +$463 +6%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $8,055 +$348 +4%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 May 14 $7,306 +$752 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino May 12 $7,231 +$73 +1%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $18,298 −$4,543 -25%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11,328 +$446 +4%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $9,704 +$1,620 +17%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $8,989 +$717 +8%
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels May 05 $8,797 +$181 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 21¢ $546 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $2,503 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 61¢ $1,732 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,621 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $2,512 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $101 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2,954 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $787 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $3,740 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $3,599 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Japan 95¢ $3,598 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 92¢ $3,506 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,442 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 62¢ $57 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2,526 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 92¢ $645 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 87¢ $60 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 87¢ $21 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,253 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,563 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $667 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $34 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $678 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3,003 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $2,801 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $70 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 475 history records