Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x4554…8dee sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$440 (-6%) realized −$682 · open +$242
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$874
7 days−$222
14 days−$572
30 days−$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.9% -15.8% 30% 30% -16.8%
≤30d 22 -2.7% -12.0% 41% 32% -18.2%
≤90d 26 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 35% -17.9%
all 26 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 35% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 35% -17.9%
10% -19.0% 35% -25.7%
15% -26.9% 35% -32.9%
20% -34.0% 35% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$186 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2,011
Realized−$682
Unrealized+$242
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage38d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 69¢ 70¢ $1,134 $1,144 +$10 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 42¢ $400 $426 +$26 (+6%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 32¢ 78¢ $137 $335 +$198 (+144%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 52¢ $98 $106 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $821 −$808 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $547 +$435 +79%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $356 −$66 -18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $470 +$685 +146%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $23 +$73 +324%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $127 −$124 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $303 −$297 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $245 −$240 -98%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $34 +$63 +188%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$2 -10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $163 +$8 +5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$14 +7%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 05 $208 +$227 +109%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $316 −$311 -99%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P Jun 02 $203 +$273 +134%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $133 −$131 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $303 +$180 +60%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 20 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 20 $304 −$300 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) May 15 $144 +$249 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $21 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $119 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 71¢ $52 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 70¢ $101 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 70¢ $101 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 70¢ $101 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 69¢ $784 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $81 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $326 7h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 30¢ $67 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $100 15h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $1 33h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $467 33h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $305 33h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $48 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $547 2d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 36¢ $290 3d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 42¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 43¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 43¢ $153 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $96 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $470 4d
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 23¢ $41 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 23¢ $23 4d
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Hokori 19¢ $14 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $64 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $64 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $303 6d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $82 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,011.10 · official $2,011.10 (match) · 65 history records