Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4555…bbcd crypto 1200 markets active 3h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$383 (-2%) realized −$383 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%639W / 561L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$39
14 days−$205
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 45% -13.4%
≤30d 531 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 48% -8.8%
≤90d 1078 -13.5% -21.8% 48% 34% -14.7%
all 1200 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 40% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 38% -21.3%
15% -30.1% 36% -28.9%
20% -36.9% 34% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$383
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses639 / 561
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1200 / 1200
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1200 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $56 +$35 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $38 +$33 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $38 +$34 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $28 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $28 +$26 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$26 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $91 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $28 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records