Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4555…2c1a crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%38W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$14
world 2% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 39 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 39 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses38 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage57d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $222 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $222 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $221 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $219 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $217 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $215 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $214 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $212 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $211 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $212 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 09 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? May 01 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $209 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $208 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $209 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $208 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $222 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $222 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $147 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $221 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $121 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $119 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $20 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $119 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $219 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $217 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $118 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 27d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $200 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 99¢ $17 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $215 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $215 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $214 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $212 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.90 · official $199.90 (match) · 85 history records