Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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45 0x455d…a8a3 crypto 1060 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,308 (-24%) realized −$4,311 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%634W / 559L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,144
7 days−$1,128
14 days−$1,230
30 days−$1,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,306
sports 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 540 -12.5% -20.8% 43% 43% -44.8%
≤30d 565 -13.5% -21.7% 43% 43% -44.0%
≤90d 1193 -8.0% -16.8% 53% 38% -21.1%
all 1193 -8.0% -16.8% 53% 38% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 38% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 34% -28.6%
15% -32.0% 30% -35.5%
20% -38.7% 28% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$4,311
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses634 / 559
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1193 / 1060
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 45¢ 76¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -62%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$15 -200%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$1 -283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -137%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$2 -325%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -93%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -406%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$13 -602%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$5 -624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +69%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +60%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $0 −$2 -475%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$7 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$1 -253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$6 -121%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$7 -230%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.21 · official $17.94 · 3500 history records