Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x455e…d618 crypto 1151 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,659 (-13%) realized −$1,659 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%434W / 679L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$394
7 days−$449
14 days−$416
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,628
other 1% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -12.9% -21.2% 40% 21% -18.7%
≤30d 563 -2.3% -11.6% 59% 36% -16.1%
≤90d 1113 -16.4% -24.3% 39% 27% -22.1%
all 1113 -16.4% -24.3% 39% 27% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 27% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 24% -29.6%
15% -38.2% 22% -36.4%
20% -44.2% 19% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,659
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses434 / 679
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1113 / 1151
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1113 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$29 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$24 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$25 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$19 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$21 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$28 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$21 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$36 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$29 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$24 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$16 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$16 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records