Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x455f…75f8 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized −$313 · open +$340
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,127per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$293
crypto 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +73.2% +56.7% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤30d 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -51.9%
≤90d 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -51.9%
all 2 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 50% -51.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 50% -51.9%
10% -29.1% 50% -56.5%
15% -36.0% 50% -60.7%
20% -42.3% 50% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -462% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -462% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$48 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4,311
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$340
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,127
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3,958 $4,299 +$341 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$48 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $959 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $337 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $338 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $960 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $162 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $502 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $309 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $46 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $49 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $61 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,310.61 · official $4,310.61 (match) · 36 history records