Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x4563…5f7c sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$59 (+6%) realized +$63 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$29
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 23 +25.2% +13.2% 57% 57% -2.1%
≤90d 23 +25.2% +13.2% 57% 57% -2.1%
all 23 +25.2% +13.2% 57% 57% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 57% -2.1%
10% +2.4% 52% -11.5%
15% -7.5% 48% -20.0%
20% -16.6% 43% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)23 / 30
History coverage13d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Luka Pavlovic Jaime Faria 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Ann Li 42¢ 44¢ $57 $60 +$3 (+4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Yunchaokete Bu 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 65¢ 64¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 51¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Yi Zhou 58¢ 54¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov Timofey Skatov 44¢ 40¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $231 +$46 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $28 +$57 +206%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 15 $17 −$10 -57%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $17 +$36 +205%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $20 +$14 +69%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $26 +$29 +112%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 +$13 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 65¢ $25 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 78¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Jaime Faria 73¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Elias Ymer vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 44¢ $20 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 58¢ $25 3h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 83¢ $231 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 51¢ $25 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 44¢ $25 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 40¢ $33 2d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $51 2d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 43¢ $31 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Shuai Zhang 37¢ $25 2d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 32¢ $28 3d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 39¢ $25 4d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 42¢ $20 6d
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 50¢ $20 6d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 36¢ $10 7d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $10 7d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 25¢ $15 7d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 32¢ $17 8d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $20 8d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 16¢ $7 8d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 17¢ $8 8d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 22¢ $10 8d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 31¢ $20 8d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Robin Montgomery 29¢ $20 8d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff BUY Nikola Bartunkova 23¢ $26 9d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $5 9d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 39¢ $5 10d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 18¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.62 · official $297.62 (match) · 56 history records