Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4564…e4f1 sports 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$35 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%121W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$37
14 days−$40
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$64
other 18% −$22
world 4% −$11
crypto 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -9.9% -18.5% 39% 34% -15.3%
≤30d 115 -6.0% -15.0% 46% 41% -12.5%
≤90d 273 -8.9% -17.5% 44% 40% -15.5%
all 273 -8.9% -17.5% 44% 40% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 40% -15.5%
10% -25.4% 26% -23.6%
15% -32.6% 14% -30.9%
20% -39.2% 11% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses121 / 152
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions8
Markets (closed)273 / 281
History coverage50d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Norway 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Team Resilience 56¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 57¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 72¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? No 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $10 −$4 -40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 +$3 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$7 -26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$7 -44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -6%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$4 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $15 −$4 -29%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$4 -27%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $22 +$19 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $16 −$7 -46%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +26%
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $13 +$7 +51%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $4 +$4 +89%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $4 −$2 -38%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces 11¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 39¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 40¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 23¢ $8 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 76¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $6 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $6 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 59¢ $3 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $10 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 21¢ $2 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 3h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 40¢ $5 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 20¢ $6 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $6 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 32¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.57 · official $66.57 (match) · 693 history records