Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4567…b39f
weather · 154 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$20 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses152 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage179d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 25? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 23? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 22? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 2? May 02 $25 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28? Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 27? Apr 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on April 26? Apr 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on April 25? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 23 Apr 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 23? Apr 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 22? Apr 22 $24 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 20? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 20? Apr 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 19? Apr 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 19? Apr 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? Apr 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 18? Apr 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17? Apr 17 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 86% +$3
world 7% −$24
other 4% $0
politics 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 41h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 10d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 12d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 15d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 17d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 18d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $7 20d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 28d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $26 29d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 -3.5% -12.7% 96% 0% -19.2%
≤90d 80 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.9%
all 153 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.25 · official $7.25 (match) · 307 history records