Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4568…d9f6 world 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,548 (-25%) realized −$8,459 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 43L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$981now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$4,756
sports 35% +$3,778
crypto 4% −$628
politics 3% −$502
other 2% −$504
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +120.6% +99.6% 100% 100% +82.8%
≤30d 17 +39.8% +26.4% 24% 24% +0.9%
≤90d 52 -21.9% -29.3% 19% 19% -16.3%
all 53 -23.3% -30.6% 19% 19% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 19% -16.6%
10% -37.2% 19% -24.6%
15% -43.3% 19% -31.9%
20% -48.9% 19% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$627) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -55% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,312 vs −$364 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$981
Realized−$8,459
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage112d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 17¢ 16¢ $1,069 $981 −$89 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $4,564 +$3,954 +87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2,134 +$2,370 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $815 +$1,338 +164%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $466 −$156 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,116 −$2,065 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2,076 −$2,076 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $2,848 −$815 -29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $600 −$312 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $2,061 −$1,986 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $627 −$156 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $1,200 −$583 -49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $1,000 −$678 -68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $511 −$368 -72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $2,741 −$389 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $450 +$4,817 +1070%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $194 −$43 -22%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 20 $112 −$90 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $572 −$560 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 16 $25 +$19 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winner May 15 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $518 +$386 +74%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $615 −$233 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15? May 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? May 09 $54 −$35 -64%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $265 −$91 -34%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $790 −$574 -73%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Apr 15 $160 −$136 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $100 −$49 -49%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $40 −$17 -44%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $285 −$210 -74%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 08 $78 +$107 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 07 $36 +$54 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 07 $60 +$51 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 07 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026? Apr 06 $468 −$468 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 01 $21 +$18 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $0 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $69 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1,000 22m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $8,518 38m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 44¢ $1,017 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $3,547 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $4,504 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $610 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $1,524 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $2,154 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 37¢ $815 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 22¢ $310 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $466 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $103 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 7¢ $169 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $1,946 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $99 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $151 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.63 · official $980.63 (match) · 343 history records