Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4569…4c94
crypto · 26 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 1 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$6
other 6% −$3
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.5% -27.2% 52% 48% -25.4%
≤30d 25 -19.5% -27.2% 52% 48% -25.4%
≤90d 25 -19.5% -27.2% 52% 48% -25.4%
all 25 -19.5% -27.2% 52% 48% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 48% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 32% -32.6%
15% -40.5% 24% -39.1%
20% -46.4% 8% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.52 · official $1.52 (match) · 73 history records