Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4569…e624 sports 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,990 (+0%) realized +$5,987 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%464W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$2,732per market
Trades / day67.8pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 158 -1.7% -11.0% 96% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 479 +5.2% -4.8% 97% 1% -9.4%
all 479 +5.2% -4.8% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 1% -9.4%
10% -13.9% 1% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -29.8% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,082) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.78 per $1 lost it wins $7.78
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$6,303
Realized+$5,987
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses464 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions2
Markets (closed)479 / 481
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$2,732
Trades / day67.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Misa Esports 100¢ 100¢ $6,298 $6,302 +$3 (+0%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,635 +$2 +0%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $3,054 +$3 +0%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 23 $196 $0 +0%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $103 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $257 $0 +0%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $2,572 +$3 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $3,003 +$3 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $109 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: PL (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $10,291 +$10 +0%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $4,342 +$4 +0%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $193 $0 +0%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $4,578 +$5 +0%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) Jun 22 $6,421 +$60 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $15,185 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $8,991 +$9 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $5,868 +$6 +0%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Jun 20 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $8,292 +$8 +0%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 20 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $6,294 +$6 +0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8,596 +$9 +0%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $14,186 +$14 +0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $11,563 +$12 +0%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 15 $740 +$6 +1%
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $13,986 +$14 +0%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,227 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $13,986 +$14 +0%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $13,860 +$140 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13,662 +$138 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13,886 +$14 +0%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $410 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $256 +$3 +1%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $277 +$3 +1%
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $12,870 +$130 +1%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $4,997 +$5 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1,544 +$2 +0%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $3,064 +$3 +0%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 07 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $345 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $45 8m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $52 32m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $10 32m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $2 46m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $1,228 52m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $473 52m
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $16 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $73 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $16 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $38 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $58 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $1,595 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $264 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $21 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $11 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $17 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $57 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $150 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $24 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $7 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $65 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $14 1h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $29 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $194 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,303.38 · official $6,303.38 (match) · 3500 history records