Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x456b…38d3 crypto 926 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,128 (+16%) realized +$1,128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%282W / 644L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day136.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$21
14 days−$59
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$299
weather 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 465 -9.9% -18.4% 54% 43% -9.1%
≤30d 926 -18.1% -25.9% 30% 25% -7.8%
≤90d 926 -18.1% -25.9% 30% 25% -7.8%
all 926 -18.1% -25.9% 30% 25% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 25% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 11% -16.6%
15% -39.4% 8% -24.6%
20% -45.4% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses282 / 644
Open positions0
Markets (closed)926 / 926
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day136.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 926 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $55 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $55 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $55 −$34 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $55 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $57 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $59 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $46 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $59 −$38 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $17 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records