Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4570…1f38 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$592 (+5%) realized +$563 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$2,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$347
14 days−$241
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$427
sports 28% +$209
crypto 8% +$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.8% -19.3% 40% 40% -19.7%
≤30d 19 +1.6% -8.1% 53% 53% -4.8%
≤90d 26 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 50% -8.9%
all 26 -2.4% -11.7% 54% 50% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% -8.9%
10% -20.1% 38% -17.6%
15% -27.8% 23% -25.6%
20% -34.9% 19% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$163 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2,049
Realized+$563
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage58d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $826 $757 −$69 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $580 $674 +$94 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $214 $215 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $191 +$26 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $600 −$410 -68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $130 +$173 +133%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $83 −$81 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $597 +$149 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $360 +$244 +68%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $400 −$56 -14%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $206 −$45 -22%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $310 −$155 -50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $205 −$191 -93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 +$211 +69%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $366 +$99 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $359 −$204 -57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $102 +$37 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $569 +$66 +12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $206 −$13 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $745 +$490 +66%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $383 +$118 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $308 −$118 -38%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $608 +$183 +30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $506 −$74 -14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $596 +$112 +19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $94 +$7 +7%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner Apr 26 $146 +$96 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $217 43m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 58m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $154 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 20¢ $190 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $186 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $130 24h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $83 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $375 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $371 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $47 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $300 29h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $100 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $604 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $344 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $160 2d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $160 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,049.10 · official $2,049.10 (match) · 126 history records