Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4571…9bc9 crypto 26 markets active 2d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$17
14 days+$7
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$15
crypto 31% −$7
other 5% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +41.9% +28.4% 52% 52% +30.7%
≤30d 26 +30.9% +18.5% 46% 46% -26.0%
≤90d 26 +30.9% +18.5% 46% 46% -26.0%
all 26 +30.9% +18.5% 46% 46% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 46% -26.0%
10% +7.1% 46% -33.1%
15% -3.2% 35% -39.5%
20% -12.7% 27% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +583%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 +$16 +191%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 −$6 -66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $11 −$7 -62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 +$3 +325%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $17 −$17 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 37h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records