Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4571…09d0 crypto 34 markets active 2d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+11%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$16
14 days+$12
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$5
sports 29% +$6
world 17% +$10
finance 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +27.1% +15.0% 60% 40% +21.1%
≤30d 32 +5.4% -4.6% 59% 50% +0.1%
≤90d 32 +5.4% -4.6% 59% 50% +0.1%
all 32 +5.4% -4.6% 59% 50% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 50% +0.1%
10% -13.8% 38% -9.5%
15% -22.1% 22% -18.2%
20% -29.7% 16% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage28d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 50¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 50¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+85%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 50¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$4 +89%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +204%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $0 $0 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 28 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 28 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 27 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 87¢ $0 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 88¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $1 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 6d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 83¢ $1 7d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 83¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 16¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 17¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 20¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Down 71¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 68¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 38¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 37¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 63¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 35¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 8d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 84¢ $1 9d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 86¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 40¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.84 · official $1.47 (match) · 129 history records