Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x4572…272e other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$421 (+19%) realized +$419 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$454
sports 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.3% -14.4% 56% 44% +10.4%
≤30d 9 -5.3% -14.4% 56% 44% +10.4%
≤90d 9 -5.3% -14.4% 56% 44% +10.4%
all 9 -5.3% -14.4% 56% 44% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 44% +10.4%
10% -22.6% 44% -0.1%
15% -30.0% 44% -9.8%
20% -36.9% 22% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$48 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $331 +$34 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $199 +$89 +45%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $177 −$13 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $260 +$112 +43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 −$119 -58%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $250 +$131 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $338 +$227 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $406 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $365 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $331 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $288 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 43¢ $164 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $177 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $199 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $373 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $87 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $85 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $174 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $204 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $381 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $46 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $566 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $87 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $47 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.41 · official $402.41 (match) · 23 history records