Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:13:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4572…47e7 sports 1251 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$857 (+2%) realized +$918 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%547W / 671L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Fees−$718est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$166
7 days+$599
14 days+$795
30 days+$1,916
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,500
other 11% −$468
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +18.3% +7.0% 37% 36% -4.4%
≤30d 472 +9.2% -1.2% 44% 43% -4.2%
≤90d 1218 +4.2% -5.7% 45% 44% -6.4%
all 1218 +4.2% -5.7% 45% 44% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 44% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 43% -15.4%
15% -23.0% 40% -23.6%
20% -30.5% 36% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$36 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$918
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses547 / 671
Est. fees paid−$718
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1218 / 1251
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BESTIA 75¢ 72¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Esport Academy Copenhagen 32¢ 32¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 4¢ 4¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs VP.Prodigy 38¢ 38¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jordan 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season OXEN 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) Jun 22 $258 +$42 +16%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $75 +$85 +113%
Valorant: REBORN vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 22 $67 −$67 -100%
Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $70 +$80 +113%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $68 +$72 +105%
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $84 −$41 -49%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 21 $93 +$57 +61%
Game Handicap: Enjoy (-1.5) vs Team Bald (+1.5) Jun 21 $52 +$93 +178%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) Jun 21 $27 +$40 +150%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 21 $160 +$40 +25%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 +$1 +15%
Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $114 −$114 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $74 +$46 +61%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) Jun 21 $42 +$66 +158%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $76 +$104 +138%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 20 $64 +$85 +133%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $64 +$136 +212%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5) Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $6 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $51 +$99 +192%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $99 +$51 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 4¢ $0 12m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 32¢ $1 46m
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 4¢ $0 48m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 32¢ $4 53m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY VP.Prodigy 38¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 32¢ $44 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 4¢ $4 2h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) BUY THE VISION 86¢ $22 3h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) BUY THE VISION 86¢ $17 3h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs 4ikibamboni (+1.5) BUY THE VISION 86¢ $220 3h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 4¢ $7 4h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 4¢ $7 4h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Jordan 1¢ $7 5h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY OXEN 50¢ $50 5h
Valorant: REBORN vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D BUY Ghools Esports 17¢ $17 6h
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY BESTIA 75¢ $90 8h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 40¢ $56 8h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 40¢ $4 8h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $35 9h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Barça eSports 26¢ $3 9h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 49¢ $3 10h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 49¢ $22 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 47¢ $14 11h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Barça eSports 26¢ $1 11h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 49¢ $1 11h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Barça eSports 26¢ $25 11h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 49¢ $2 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 3¢ $15 12h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY Beşiktaş Esports 49¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.81 · official $175.81 (match) · 3500 history records