Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4578…3d80 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 54L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$12
14 days+$21
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$25
other 20% −$2
politics 11% +$1
sports 11% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 70% 10% -8.3%
≤30d 32 +3.3% -6.5% 56% 12% -8.3%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 6% -8.8%
all 91 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -8.9%
10% -19.0% 3% -17.6%
15% -26.8% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage523d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $135 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $45 +$3 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $139 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $66 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $120 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $112 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $59 +$8 +13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $21 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $26 +$4 +14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $173 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $71 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $145 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $52 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $8 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $28 +$19 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $72 −$16 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $10 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $49 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -12%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $19 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $3 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $34 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $10 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $32 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $66 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $55 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $12 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $66 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $66 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $66 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $65 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records