Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4579…f6b0
crypto · 74 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$21 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses41 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day182.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 72 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$20 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$13 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -78%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $14 +$24 +171%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$4 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$9 -26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$11 -35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$11 -59%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +216%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +215%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 +$6 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +14%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$9 -82%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $70 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$58
other 12% −$16
sports 3% +$34
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 99¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 11¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 23¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 49¢ $9 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 42¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 40% -14.2%
≤30d 72 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 40% -14.2%
≤90d 72 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 40% -14.2%
all 72 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 40% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover182.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 40% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 25% -22.4%
15% -26.8% 14% -29.9%
20% -33.9% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.65 · official $3.65 (match) · 210 history records