Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4579…8f46 sports 1377 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%1346W / 30L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$31
14 days+$56
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$122
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +0.4% -9.1% 97% 2% -8.9%
≤30d 314 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 2% -8.6%
≤90d 1161 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 2% -9.1%
all 1376 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 2% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1346 / 30
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1376 / 1377
History coverage113d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Fang An Lin Yuno Kitahara 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Han Shi Jun 18 $54 +$1 +1%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Himari Sato Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Tulsa: Luca Pow vs Lucas Marionneau Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Soha Sadiq Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Dublin: Completed Match: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
ITF Mohammedia: Liel Marlies Rothensteiner vs Yasmine Douyeb Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
ITF San Gregorio: Isabelle Cherny vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
ITF Women Mohammedia: Completed Match: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Jade vs. Perot: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Golas vs. Frodin: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Filippo vs. Gima: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Sheng Tang vs. Siwanat Auytayakul: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani Jun 17 $117 +$1 +1%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $116 +$1 +1%
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
ITF Tokyo: Noritaka Koizumi vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 17 $115 +$1 +1%
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $114 +$1 +1%
ITF Women Blois: Completed Match: Jana Otzipka vs Clara Burel Jun 16 $113 +$1 +1%
Krumich vs. Wazny: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
ITF Women Blois: Completed Match: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lans Jun 16 $54 +$1 +1%
ITF Women Blois: Completed Match: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichai Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
ITF Ystad: Ida Wobker vs Johanne Christine Svendsen Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Dublin: Completed Match: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Cecchinato vs. Caniato: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Brescia: Completed Match: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $108 +$1 +1%
Brescia (Doubles): Bara/Karamoko vs Kuwata/Tran Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
ITF Milano: Alessandro Spadola vs Nicolo Toffanin Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
ITF Women Sapporo: Completed Match: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $52 +$1 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
ITF Men Tokyo: Completed Match: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $106 +$1 +1%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 16 $82 +$1 +1%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Ryota Tanuma Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $81 +$1 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $13 $0 +2%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Petra Marcinko vs. Aoi Ito: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Manon Leonard vs. Alina Charaeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Oliver Tarvet vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Fang An Lin BUY Yuno Kitahara 100¢ $29 20m
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Han Shi BUY Han Shi 99¢ $54 1h
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Himari Sato BUY Gaeul Jang 99¢ $10 3h
ITF Tulsa: Luca Pow vs Lucas Marionneau BUY Luca Pow 99¢ $109 13h
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Soha Sadiq BUY Nina Vargova 99¢ $5 13h
Dublin: Completed Match: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Yes 99¢ $20 14h
Dublin: Completed Match: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Yes 99¢ $5 15h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 92¢ $1 15h
ITF San Gregorio: Isabelle Cherny vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Lucciana Perez Alarcon 99¢ $37 16h
ITF Women Mohammedia: Completed Match: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic SELL Yes 100¢ $37 16h
ITF San Gregorio: Isabelle Cherny vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Lucciana Perez Alarcon 99¢ $1 16h
ITF Women Mohammedia: Completed Match: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic BUY Yes 99¢ $37 17h
ITF Mohammedia: Liel Marlies Rothensteiner vs Yasmine Douyeb BUY Liel Marlies Rothensteiner 100¢ $84 17h
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold BUY Emily Seibold 97¢ $40 18h
Jade vs. Perot: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $49 19h
Jade vs. Perot: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 19h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 89¢ $1 19h
Golas vs. Frodin: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 20h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 99¢ $27 21h
Filippo vs. Gima: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $4 21h
Sheng Tang vs. Siwanat Auytayakul: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $101 21h
Sheng Tang vs. Siwanat Auytayakul: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $88 22h
Sheng Tang vs. Siwanat Auytayakul: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 98¢ $12 22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 99¢ $18 22h
ITF Taipei: Eri Shimizu vs Nagi Hanatani BUY Eri Shimizu 99¢ $117 24h
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang SELL Anchisa Chanta 100¢ $117 26h
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang BUY Anchisa Chanta 99¢ $116 26h
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi BUY Seo Yun Choi 99¢ $27 27h
ITF Tokyo: Noritaka Koizumi vs Masamichi Imamura SELL Masamichi Imamura 100¢ $27 27h
ITF Tokyo: Noritaka Koizumi vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Masamichi Imamura 99¢ $115 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 3173 history records