Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x457a…37d5
sports · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$73 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$192
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions15
Markets (closed)20 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 15 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 31¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$20 +197%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$16 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$3 -61%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$9 -57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 60% −$64
other 38% −$11
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 51m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $15 52m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 53m
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 56¢ $23 53m
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 53m
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 2h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 12h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $30 12h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $2 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $6 12h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 23h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $10 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 26h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $15 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 29h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $15 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -28.4%
≤30d 20 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -28.4%
≤90d 20 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -28.4%
all 20 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 40% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 40% -35.2%
15% -38.0% 40% -41.5%
20% -44.0% 30% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.22 · official $192.22 (match) · 65 history records