Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
45 0x457d…52bf other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$1
world 25% +$6
sports 16% +$4
other 15% −$4
economics 12% +$1
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 26% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 31 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 0% -9.6%
all 80 -3.1% -12.3% 42% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 8% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 6% -18.1%
15% -28.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage483d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $163 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $177 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $261 −$1 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $178 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $338 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $102 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $159 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $175 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $175 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $64 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $160 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $64 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $173 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $157 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $107 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $118 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $158 −$2 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,328 −$6 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 13 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $1,039 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $1,037 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,141 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 07 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $3 −$1 -26%
U.S. recession before May 2025? Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $1 $0 -16%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 13 $32 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $3 $0 +5%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $163 52m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $163 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $177 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $177 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $97 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $80 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $179 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $178 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $178 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $83 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $83 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $178 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $178 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $56 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $70 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $160 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $160 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $77 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $37 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $160 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $87 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $73 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records