Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x457e…72dd weather 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$564 (+57%) realized +$653 · open −$89
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$248
14 days+$509
30 days+$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$565
sports 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+50.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +224.1% +193.2% 100% 100% +193.4%
≤30d 24 +66.6% +50.7% 58% 58% +63.3%
≤90d 24 +66.6% +50.7% 58% 58% +63.3%
all 24 +66.6% +50.7% 58% 58% +63.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.7% 58% +63.3%
10% +36.3% 58% +47.7%
15% +23.1% 58% +33.4%
20% +11.1% 54% +20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +157% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$29 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$653
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage24d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $60 $71 +$11 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? No 34¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? No 48¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $60 +$137 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 19 $28 +$61 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$50 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $48 +$48 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $76 +$158 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $67 +$139 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $16 +$96 +612%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 05 $68 +$148 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on Jun Jun 04 $3 +$2 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2? Jun 04 $47 +$22 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 4? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $89 +$73 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 3? Jun 02 $80 −$79 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $6 +$8 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 34¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 98¢ $197 28h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $13 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY No 48¢ $24 36h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.28 · official $71.28 (match) · 177 history records