Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
45 0x457f…2a64 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$34,804 (+60%) realized +$34,401 · open +$403
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$9,661per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$24,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$34,474
sports 17% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +56.8% +41.8% 67% 67% +81.4%
≤30d 3 +56.8% +41.8% 67% 67% +81.4%
≤90d 3 +56.8% +41.8% 67% 67% +81.4%
all 3 +56.8% +41.8% 67% 67% +81.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.8% 67% +81.4%
10% ← realistic here +28.3% 67% +64.0%
15% +15.9% 67% +48.2%
20% +4.5% 67% +33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20,439 vs −$6,892 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.93 per $1 lost it wins $5.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$24,132
Realized+$34,401
Unrealized+$403
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9,661
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 61¢ 64¢ $11,001 $11,452 +$451 (+4%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 57¢ 56¢ $9,528 $9,443 −$85 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 43¢ 44¢ $3,200 $3,237 +$37 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6,930 +$7,000 +101%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20,007 +$33,878 +169%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6,995 −$6,892 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $1 7m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $4 9m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $8 10m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $8 16m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $1 17m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $19 49m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $11 50m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $4 52m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $75 52m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $8 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $4 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $3,100 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $9,651 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $22 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $11,108 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 36¢ $7,383 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 37¢ $12,624 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $462 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $6,467 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $397 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $6,598 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,131.83 · official $24,133.51 (match) · 30 history records