Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x457f…28a7 politics 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$17
other 38% −$13
sports 10% +$50
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 119 +3.5% -6.4% 8% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 4% -9.5%
10% -15.3% 4% -18.1%
15% -23.5% 3% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×14.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage132d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $239 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $313 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $235 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $305 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $308 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $311 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $308 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $305 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $291 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $303 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $281 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 16 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $254 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $364 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $426 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $244 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 24h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 22d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 22d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 24d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 25d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $313 25d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $313 25d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 25d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $263 27d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $263 28d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 28d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $305 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $305 29d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 29d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 30d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $307 31d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $307 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $242 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 344 history records