Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
45 0x4580…94f8 other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,278 (+1%) realized +$2,278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%30W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$22
14 days−$39
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$99
politics 34% −$92
sports 15% +$2,447
culture 3% −$10
world 1% −$1
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 +3.6% -6.2% 11% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 94 -7.1% -16.0% 6% 3% -9.0%
all 153 +4.3% -5.7% 20% 11% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 11% -8.6%
10% -14.7% 11% -17.3%
15% -22.9% 11% -25.3%
20% -30.5% 10% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,862) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$7 · ×14.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized+$2,278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses30 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $1,711 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,808 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $6,568 −$7 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $4,994 −$7 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $959 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $1,950 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,383 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,107 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,442 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,408 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,661 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,160 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,229 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $906 −$1 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $69 +$109 +158%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,676 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,393 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $347 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,287 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $3,123 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,586 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,177 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $366 $0 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $70 +$56 +79%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,308 −$3 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,482 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,584 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $8,144 −$9 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,402 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $467 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $467 4h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $451 25h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $452 26h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $358 27h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $358 29h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $298 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $298 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 6d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $974 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $975 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $958 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $959 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $915 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $916 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $994 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $995 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $998 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $999 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,115 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,116 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,105 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,107 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 11d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $344 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,198 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,200 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,048 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.04 · official $344.04 (match) · 509 history records