Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4586…15f3
weather · 1160 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$67 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$245
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1142 / 7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1149 / 1160
History coverage46d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 1149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days+$1
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 34¢ 50¢ $102 $148 +$46 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11? No 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 27? No 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 11? No 99¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 94°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 44°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$13
world 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $12 25h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 511 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 1149 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 1149 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.85 · official $244.85 (match) · 2671 history records