Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4586…158c crypto 614 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$739 (+2%) realized +$739 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate82%534W / 118L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day166.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,268
other 5% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -12.8% -21.1% 77% 28% -34.9%
≤30d 652 -6.2% -15.2% 82% 29% -14.8%
≤90d 652 -6.2% -15.2% 82% 29% -14.8%
all 652 -6.2% -15.2% 82% 29% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 29% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 8% -23.0%
15% -30.7% 4% -30.4%
20% -37.5% 2% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$47 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$739
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses534 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)652 / 614
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day166.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perric Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$20 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$10 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $33 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 17m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 38m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 42m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.09 · official $5.09 (match) · 3500 history records