Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4587…7bc9 sports 27 markets active 20h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$23,398 (-18%) realized −$23,398 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,726per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1,666est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,713
7 days−$17,243
14 days−$31,950
30 days−$24,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$35,993
other 16% +$11,436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -69.1% -72.0% 25% 25% -88.7%
≤30d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 59% -27.0%
≤90d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 59% -27.0%
all 27 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 59% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 59% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 59% -34.0%
15% -26.3% 48% -40.4%
20% -33.5% 44% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$6,713) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,589 vs −$5,998 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23,398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$1,666
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage26d
Avg bet$4,726
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $6,820 −$6,713 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8,137 −$8,000 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,987 +$471 +24%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3,046 −$3,000 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15,211 −$15,000 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15,229 −$15,000 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20,953 +$11,436 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8,094 +$5,021 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,228 +$3,639 +86%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,299 −$1,299 -100%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,052 −$3,052 -100%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3,069 −$3,069 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9,132 −$9,132 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,091 +$7,729 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,547 +$2,810 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,034 +$1,209 +60%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $2,032 +$2,218 +109%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $1,618 +$476 +29%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $3,723 +$963 +26%
Cabo Verde vs. Serbia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $700 −$700 -100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $3,043 +$2,590 +85%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $505 +$252 +50%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $2,022 +$1,112 +55%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $1,013 +$779 +77%
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 May 31 $490 +$316 +64%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $507 +$401 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $6,820 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $8,137 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,987 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3,046 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $15,211 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15,229 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20,953 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4,228 10d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $8,094 10d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5,091 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6,357 10d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 62¢ $2,034 11d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,013 11d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2,534 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4,040 14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5,091 14d
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1,017 22d
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1,017 22d
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1,018 22d
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,299 23d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,016 24d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,016 24d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2,094 24d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $611 24d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1,007 24d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1,022 25d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1,023 25d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1,023 25d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 50¢ $4,685 25d
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $667 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records