Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4589…2021 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-42%) realized −$28 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$4
sports 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -55.2% -59.5% 12% 12% -59.3%
≤30d 8 -55.2% -59.5% 12% 12% -59.3%
≤90d 8 -55.2% -59.5% 12% 12% -59.3%
all 8 -55.2% -59.5% 12% 12% -59.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.5% 12% -59.3%
10% -63.3% 12% -63.2%
15% -66.9% 12% -66.7%
20% -70.1% 12% -70.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals Yes 6¢ 45¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+645%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -34%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +175%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -82%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 43m
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 47m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 18h
Tunisia to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.92 · official $25.54 · 18 history records