Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4589…0648 crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (246 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-8%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day246.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (246 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -5.1% -14.2% 51% 46% -16.6%
≤30d 79 -5.1% -14.2% 51% 46% -16.6%
≤90d 79 -5.1% -14.2% 51% 46% -16.6%
all 79 -5.1% -14.2% 51% 46% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover246.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 46% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 38% -24.6%
15% -29.9% 18% -31.9%
20% -36.8% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day246.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$5 -25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 28m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $7 33m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $7 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $0 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $0 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $4 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records