Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x458c…68f8 sports 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%7W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$2
other 22% −$16
politics 20% −$3
economics 9% −$1
world 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 191 -0.6% -10.1% 4% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses7 / 184
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage166d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 08 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 11 $32 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $35 $0 -1%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $250 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $220 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $160 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $335 −$1 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 22 $84 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $40 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 95¢ $29 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $29 12d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 24d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 25d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $29 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $30 35d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $35 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $29 69d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $6 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 91¢ $32 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 91¢ $32 70d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 70d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? SELL No 96¢ $40 70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 96¢ $40 70d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 70d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 70d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 70d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 71d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $34 72d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $35 72d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 94¢ $39 72d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $40 72d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $40 73d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $40 73d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 73d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 80d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $32 80d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $32 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.67 · official $33.67 (match) · 650 history records