Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x458c…c504 other 331 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (414 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$713 (+1%) realized +$1,047 · open −$334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%113W / 69L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day413.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$11,673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,696
7 days+$2,289
14 days+$2,575
30 days+$2,575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$1,121
crypto 16% +$479
world 15% +$297
tech 5% −$10
economics 4% +$93
sports 2% +$149
culture 1% +$96
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (414 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 +39.5% +26.3% 66% 25% -2.4%
≤30d 182 +36.3% +23.4% 62% 24% -2.1%
≤90d 182 +36.3% +23.4% 62% 24% -2.1%
all 182 +36.3% +23.4% 62% 24% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover413.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.4% 24% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here +11.6% 19% -11.4%
15% +0.8% 15% -20.0%
20% -9.1% 13% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$1 · ×27.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×48.87 per $1 lost it wins $48.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$11,673
Realized+$1,047
Unrealized−$334
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses113 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions248
Markets (closed)182 / 331
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$181
Trades / day413.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 248 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $193 $193 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 94¢ $190 $185 −$5 (-3%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $177 $178 +$1 (+1%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $178 $172 −$6 (-3%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 87¢ 86¢ $173 $171 −$2 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 84¢ $184 $167 −$17 (-9%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 92¢ 82¢ $184 $164 −$20 (-11%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 87¢ 84¢ $169 $164 −$5 (-3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 80¢ $178 $159 −$19 (-11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 74¢ $192 $147 −$45 (-23%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 86¢ 81¢ $154 $145 −$9 (-6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 85¢ 69¢ $142 $116 −$26 (-19%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be 25+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 97¢ 94¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 86¢ 90¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 96¢ 84¢ $96 $84 −$12 (-12%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 78¢ $87 $78 −$9 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US civil war before 2027? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +82%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +463%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +858%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Jun 16 $0 +$2 +628%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Jun 16 $0 +$5 +3166%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $446 +$49 +11%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 16 $199 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 16 $296 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $137 −$36 -26%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $49 +$50 +100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 16 $346 +$50 +14%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $99 +$49 +50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $1,100 +$187 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? Jun 16 $94 +$2 +2%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 16 $49 +$43 +88%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 16 $338 +$49 +15%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $147 +$50 +34%
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $86 +$2 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $85 +$49 +58%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr Jun 16 $354 +$1 +0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $439 +$1 +0%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $339 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $343 +$48 +14%
Will Solana reach $140 in June? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $364 +$50 +14%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $859 +$48 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 16 $694 +$49 +7%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $597 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $421 +$49 +12%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $43 +$1 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $237 −$2 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $835 +$48 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 15 $47 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 15 $145 +$49 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 0m
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 1m
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $46 2m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY No 97¢ $46 2m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 4m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $55 4m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $43 5m
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 5m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 6m
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 12m
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY No 92¢ $7 13m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $49 15m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $50 19m
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $48 20m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $8 21m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $28 24m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 27m
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 28m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $31 30m
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 92¢ $22 30m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $31 32m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $49 32m
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $32 44m
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? SELL No 99¢ $17 44m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $49 47m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $50 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 49m
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL No 98¢ $49 50m
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? SELL No 97¢ $48 50m
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 98¢ $49 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,672.94 · official $11,665.36 (match) · 3500 history records