Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x458d…ac24 crypto 1217 markets active 6d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$157 (-6%) realized −$157 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%586W / 624L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$346
14 days−$358
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$171
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -38.9% -44.7% 35% 35% -66.8%
≤30d 267 -22.0% -29.4% 39% 39% -38.6%
≤90d 1210 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -15.4%
all 1210 -7.0% -15.9% 48% 48% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 48% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 48% -23.5%
15% -31.3% 48% -30.9%
20% -38.0% 48% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$157
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses586 / 624
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1210 / 1217
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1210 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2116 history records