Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
45 0x458e…8034 weather 1303 markets active 4d ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$386 (+5%) realized +$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%825W / 478L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$67
14 days−$419
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 +3.7% -6.2% 82% 81% -5.9%
≤30d 1227 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 64% -13.2%
≤90d 1303 -0.8% -10.2% 63% 62% -11.9%
all 1303 -0.8% -10.2% 63% 62% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 62% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 45% -20.3%
15% -26.7% 25% -28.0%
20% -33.9% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses825 / 478
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1303 / 1303
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1303 Trades
no open positions (224 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 23 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 81¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 72¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 73¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 71¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 80¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 75¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 71¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 71¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2954 history records