Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4591…df1b other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,833 (-11%) realized −$3,719 · open +$886
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%72W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$13,318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3,004
30 days−$3,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$3,221
sports 1% +$35
world 0% +$110
tech 0% +$4
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -58.5% -62.5% 0% 0% -62.5%
≤90d 3 -69.3% -72.2% 0% 0% -62.5%
all 113 -1.6% -11.0% 64% 59% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 59% -34.9%
10% -19.5% 48% -41.1%
15% -27.3% 29% -46.8%
20% -34.4% 18% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$150 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$13,318
Realized−$3,719
Unrealized+$886
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses72 / 41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage279d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7,432 $7,346 −$86 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $5,000 $5,972 +$972 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5,134 −$3,004 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24? Apr 24 $3 −$2 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 22? Apr 22 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $50 +$18 +37%
Will Monaco win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $100 +$23 +23%
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $100 +$78 +78%
Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $30 +$18 +61%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $30 +$15 +49%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Inter win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-30? Oct 01 $300 +$30 +10%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-09-29? Sep 30 $100 −$83 -83%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Galatasaray win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-29? Sep 30 $30 +$9 +32%
Will FC Arouca win on 2025-09-29? Sep 30 $100 +$9 +9%
Will West Ham win on 2025-09-29? Sep 30 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-29? Sep 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-09-29? Sep 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Parma win on 2025-09-29? Sep 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $300 +$145 +48%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $60 +$33 +56%
Will FC Groningen win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $30 +$25 +85%
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $60 +$32 +54%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Fulham win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $30 −$23 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,119 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,130 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $263 11d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $238 13d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $300 14d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $328 16d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,682 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5,126 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5,133 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,059 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 62d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 62d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 62d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 63d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 63d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 22? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 63d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 22? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 63d
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01? SELL No 100¢ $68 266d
Will Monaco win on 2025-10-01? SELL No 100¢ $114 266d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 266d
Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-10-01? SELL No 100¢ $123 266d
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-10-01? SELL No 100¢ $63 266d
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-10-01? SELL No 100¢ $130 266d
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 266d
Will Qarabag win on 2025-10-01? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 266d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 266d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,318.47 · official $13,318.47 (match) · 248 history records