Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4591…7d89
sports · 927 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$917 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$874 · open −$44
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$106
Realized−$874
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses445 / 478
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)923 / 927
History coverage57d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 923 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$241
14 days−$307
30 days−$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$19 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $50 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$16 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $46 −$29 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $85 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $30 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$22 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$2 +6%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$9 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $24 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 46% −$464
sports 39% −$243
crypto 10% −$156
other 4% −$45
politics 1% −$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 59¢ $26 4m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 89¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 88¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $41 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -2.8% -12.1% 82% 2% -15.6%
≤30d 614 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 10% -15.6%
≤90d 923 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 20% -17.0%
all 923 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 20% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 20% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 15% -24.9%
15% -35.1% 10% -32.2%
20% -41.4% 7% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.49 · official $106.49 (match) · 3113 history records