Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
45 0x4592…a49c other 52 markets active 3d ago coverage 322d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$423 (+8%) realized +$489 · open −$66
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$303
14 days+$302
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$205
politics 15% −$142
sports 13% +$434
world 11% −$51
crypto 10% −$18
economics 4% +$67
culture 2% −$98
weather 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.0% +18.6% 75% 75% +33.4%
≤30d 13 +27.6% +15.4% 69% 69% +21.3%
≤90d 19 +25.0% +13.1% 68% 68% +19.2%
all 48 +25.1% +13.2% 65% 60% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.2% 60% -0.2%
10% +2.4% 54% -9.8%
15% -7.5% 44% -18.5%
20% -16.6% 31% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$55 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$489
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage322d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $91 $43 −$48 (-52%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $212 +$85 +40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $155 +$87 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Mar 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? Mar 25 $19 +$19 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 25 $19 +$33 +172%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 23 $99 +$19 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 23 $99 +$25 +26%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $100 +$79 +78%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 24 $496 −$6 -1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $100 +$26 +26%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 31 $78 +$7 +9%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 31 $388 +$96 +25%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 30 $108 −$20 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $200 −$188 -94%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 26 $100 +$2 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 20 $49 +$23 +47%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Dec 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 17 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 27 $99 +$126 +128%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 16 $98 −$98 -100%
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown? Nov 14 $200 +$35 +18%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 12 $170 +$47 +28%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 10 $176 −$93 -53%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 10 $100 −$36 -36%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Nov 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 09 $100 −$82 -82%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 +$59 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $10 +$61 +614%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $100 +$52 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$117 +117%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$22 +22%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$49 +49%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Oct 24 $100 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $31 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $161 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $104 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? BUY Yes $10 87d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 87d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 87d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 88d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 89d
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 40¢ $179 112d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $91 120d
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 84¢ $99 133d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 80¢ $99 133d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 23¢ $95 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.28 · official $223.28 (match) · 134 history records