Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x4595…4353 crypto 1212 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$985 (+0%) realized +$985 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%1064W / 144L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$1,293
14 days+$124
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$1,470
sports 8% −$1,263
finance 2% +$22
other 1% +$4
tech 0% +$26
weather 0% −$9
world 0% +$5
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 14% -16.7%
≤30d 845 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 1208 -1.4% -10.8% 88% 2% -9.5%
all 1208 -1.4% -10.8% 88% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 2% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$56 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$985
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1064 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1208 / 1212
History coverage55d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $153 −$17 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$13 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $64 +$7 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $154 −$13 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $152 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$8 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$4 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$12 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $126 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$18 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$3 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$29 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $252 +$23 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $163 +$6 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $152 −$39 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $177 +$9 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $153 −$26 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$8 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$2 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $79 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $165 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $151 −$35 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $65 +$28 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $228 +$11 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $91 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $81 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $139 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $154 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $165 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $152 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $71 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $61 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $42 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $50 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $88 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $100 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $126 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $39 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $58 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2785 history records