trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 01 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -89% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 01 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Jan 18 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Jan 18 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 18 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jan 18 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 4 | -37.4% | -43.4% | 50% | 50% | -43.4% |
| all | 9 | -11.0% | -19.5% | 78% | 44% | -18.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.5% | 44% | -18.1% |
| 10% | -27.2% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 15% | -34.2% | 0% | -33.1% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 0% | -39.7% |