Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
45 0x4597…61f5 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$796per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$66
other 11% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +3.5% -6.3% 91% 18% -18.2%
all 15 +7.2% -3.0% 93% 27% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 27% -10.0%
10% -12.3% 27% -18.6%
15% -20.8% 20% -26.5%
20% -28.5% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$1,663 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage104d
Avg bet$796
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $188 +$138 +73%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $187 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $1,672 −$1,663 -99%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 21 $1,517 +$155 +10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $996 +$520 +52%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 08 $973 +$20 +2%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $972 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 02 $970 +$2 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Apr 01 $969 +$1 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $1,237 +$458 +37%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 21 $938 +$299 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Mar 20 $935 +$3 +0%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $934 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $126 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 30d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $188 35d
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $187 47d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 81¢ $1,672 68d
LoL: SK Gaming vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $1,517 69d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 65¢ $996 80d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Invictus Gaming 64¢ $5 81d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Invictus Gaming 64¢ $228 81d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Invictus Gaming 64¢ $10 81d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Invictus Gaming 64¢ $750 81d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 62¢ $973 81d
Jazz vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $972 85d
Knicks vs. Grizzlies BUY Knicks 100¢ $970 87d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $969 95d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $1,237 98d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 76¢ $938 100d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 100¢ $935 101d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 100¢ $934 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.94 · official $125.94 (match) · 37 history records