Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4598…1232
crypto · 833 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,138 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$574 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$574
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses386 / 548
Open positions2
Markets (closed)934 / 833
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day200.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 934 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$376
7 days−$442
14 days−$574
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 52¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -35.7% -41.8% 23% 12% -24.1%
≤30d 934 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 16% -17.2%
≤90d 934 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 16% -17.2%
all 934 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 16% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover200.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 16% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 7% -25.1%
15% -40.1% 4% -32.3%
20% -46.0% 2% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.02 (match) · 3500 history records