Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

45
0x4599…4152
sports · 193 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$132 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$163 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses97 / 94
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)191 / 193
History coverage63d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 191 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 63¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
ITF Wichita: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Reese Brantmeier Sahaja Yamalapalli 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Alexander Vasilev vs Anton Arzhankin Anton Arzhankin 30¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 61¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $91 −$4 -5%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 −$1 -29%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $45 +$6 +13%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $7 −$2 -29%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $12 −$3 -27%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $7 −$1 -15%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $28 −$4 -15%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $6 +$2 +25%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $9 −$1 -7%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $20 −$6 -28%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$136
other 8% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $10 9m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 85¢ $15 10m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 56¢ $11 10m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $10 12m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 37¢ $10 12m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $10 21m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $9 21m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 37¢ $10 22m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 64¢ $15 23m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $10 27m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 58¢ $10 28m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 42¢ $8 28m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $9 28m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $10 32m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $10 32m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $10 33m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $10 33m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $10 34m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 59¢ $9 35m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $11 35m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $10 37m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 53¢ $9 39m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 65¢ $10 41m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 35¢ $9 44m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 58¢ $10 44m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $10 47m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 45¢ $9 47m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 60¢ $10 49m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $10 53m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 52¢ $9 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -0.9% -10.3% 57% 21% -11.9%
≤30d 87 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 21% -12.2%
≤90d 191 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 31% -15.8%
all 191 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 31% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 31% -15.8%
10% -18.8% 18% -23.9%
15% -26.6% 16% -31.2%
20% -33.8% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.43 · official $21.43 (match) · 833 history records