Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
45 0x459a…2c85 weather 49 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-15%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$41
other 18% −$10
crypto 6% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.8% +0.3% 50% 50% -44.2%
≤30d 49 -15.7% -23.8% 49% 31% -23.9%
≤90d 49 -15.7% -23.8% 49% 31% -23.9%
all 49 -15.7% -23.8% 49% 31% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 31% -23.9%
10% -31.1% 16% -31.2%
15% -37.7% 14% -37.9%
20% -43.8% 12% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage10d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +148%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $2 $0 -23%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +11%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$6 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 03 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$4 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $73 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +75%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 02 $2 +$11 +571%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +12%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 67¢ $9 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL No 53¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 65¢ $2 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $2 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? SELL No 49¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 64¢ $3 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? SELL No 49¢ $3 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? BUY No 39¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 89¢ $6 9d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? SELL No 98¢ $8 9d
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? BUY No 64¢ $5 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 19¢ $2 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 20¢ $2 11d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? BUY No 90¢ $6 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? BUY No 94¢ $8 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 4? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 4? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 4? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? SELL No 46¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 4? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records