Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
45 0x459a…bf86 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2,802 (+40%) realized +$2,802 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,130
7 days+$2,639
14 days+$2,639
30 days+$2,629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,920
other 28% +$749
crypto 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +47.5% +33.4% 46% 46% +28.1%
≤30d 51 +44.6% +30.8% 45% 45% +27.9%
≤90d 51 +44.6% +30.8% 45% 45% +27.9%
all 51 +44.6% +30.8% 45% 45% +27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.8% 45% +27.9%
10% +18.3% 43% +15.6%
15% +6.9% 39% +4.5%
20% -3.6% 39% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$51 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized+$2,802
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage24d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $385 $382 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$10 -10%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $62 −$3 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$69 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $72 +$111 +156%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $218 +$373 +171%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 −$41 -50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $77 +$26 +33%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $151 +$185 +122%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$115 +320%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $33 −$7 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $31 −$4 -14%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $272 −$30 -11%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $153 +$188 +122%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$53 +103%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $62 +$137 +223%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$13 +64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $82 +$156 +190%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 +$167 +164%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $131 +$277 +211%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 −$40 -65%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 +$65 +314%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $81 +$115 +142%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $567 +$495 +87%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $590 +$130 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 +$7 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $153 −$139 -91%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $883 −$82 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $262 +$575 +220%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$139 +1350%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $118 −$115 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$44 -86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $157 +$113 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$8 -19%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $422 +$378 +89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $282 +$166 +59%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $392 3m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 21¢ $93 4m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $58 4m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $103 5m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $31 46m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $121 55m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $82 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $183 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $62 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $72 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 24¢ $103 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $38 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $77 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $336 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $151 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $218 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $41 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 21¢ $27 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $36 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $242 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $272 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $31 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $153 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $62 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $478.91 · official $478.91 (match) · 101 history records