Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
45 0x459b…f771 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$635 (+6%) realized +$635 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,739
7 days−$857
14 days−$857
30 days−$1,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$72
other 28% −$1,014
politics 12% +$287
crypto 7% −$30
world 7% +$479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.5% -8.2% 57% 57% -20.9%
≤30d 18 -15.3% -23.4% 50% 44% -27.5%
≤90d 31 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 42% -15.9%
all 31 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 42% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 42% -15.9%
10% -15.8% 42% -24.0%
15% -23.9% 35% -31.3%
20% -31.4% 32% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$627) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$275 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$635
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage55d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $366 −$366 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $874 −$456 -52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $798 +$457 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $811 −$811 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $279 −$279 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $780 −$763 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $711 +$479 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $627 +$422 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $517 +$158 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $610 +$318 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $245 −$241 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $65 +$54 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$54 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $81 +$119 +146%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $904 +$31 +3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $870 −$861 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $162 +$738 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 09 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 09 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 09 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $597 +$253 +42%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $613 +$34 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 22¢ $282 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 55¢ $135 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $874 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $28 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $79 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $93 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $597 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $279 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $811 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $6 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $768 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $711 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,049 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $627 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $674 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $517 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $928 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $609 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,098 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $61 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 60¢ $600 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 53¢ $245 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $119 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $65 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $132 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 58¢ $77 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records